445 research outputs found

    Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    Get PDF
    BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

    Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

    Get PDF
    The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

    Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

    Get PDF
    Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

    Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 with a hidden Markov model in O3 LIGO data

    Get PDF
    Results are presented for a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to allow for spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory data by including the orbital period in the search template grid, and by analyzing data from the latest (third) observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 500 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1 using a HMM to date. For the most sensitive subband, starting at 256.06 Hz, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) of h 95 % 0 = 6.16 × 10 − 26 , assuming the orbital inclination angle takes its electromagnetically restricted value ι = 4 4 ° . The upper limits on gravitational wave strain reported here are on average a factor of ∼ 3 lower than in the second observing run HMM search. This is the first Scorpius X-1 HMM search with upper limits that reach below the indirect torque-balance limit for certain subbands, assuming ι = 4 4 °

    Measurement of the double-differential inclusive jet cross section in proton-proton collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 5.02 TeV

    No full text
    International audienceThe inclusive jet cross section is measured as a function of jet transverse momentum pTp_\mathrm{T} and rapidity yy. The measurement is performed using proton-proton collision data at s\sqrt{s} = 5.02 TeV, recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 27.4 pb1^{-1}. The jets are reconstructed with the anti-kTk_\mathrm{T} algorithm using a distance parameter of RR = 0.4, within the rapidity interval y\lvert y\rvert<\lt 2, and across the kinematic range 0.06 <\ltpTp_\mathrm{T}<\lt 1 TeV. The jet cross section is unfolded from detector to particle level using the determined jet response and resolution. The results are compared to predictions of perturbative quantum chromodynamics, calculated at both next-to-leading order and next-to-next-to-leading order. The predictions are corrected for nonperturbative effects, and presented for a variety of parton distribution functions and choices of the renormalization/factorization scales and the strong coupling αS\alpha_\mathrm{S}

    Inclusive nonresonant multilepton probes of new phenomena at s\sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

    No full text
    An inclusive search for nonresonant signatures of beyond the standard model (SM) phenomena in events with three or more charged leptons, including hadronically decaying τ\tau leptons, is presented. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb1^{-1} of proton-proton collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016-2018. Events are categorized based on the lepton and b-tagged jet multiplicities and various kinematic variables. Three scenarios of physics beyond the SM are probed, and signal-specific boosted decision trees are used for enhancing sensitivity. No significant deviations from the background expectations are observed. Lower limits are set at 95% confidence level on the mass of type-III seesaw heavy fermions in the range 845-1065 GeV for various decay branching fraction combinations to SM leptons. Doublet and singlet vector-like τ\tau lepton extensions of the SM are excluded for masses below 1045 GeV and in the mass range 125-150 GeV, respectively. Scalar leptoquarks decaying exclusively to a top quark and a lepton are excluded below 1.12-1.42 TeV, depending on the lepton flavor. For the type-III seesaw as well as the vector-like doublet model, these constraints are the most stringent to date. For the vector-like singlet model, these are the first constraints from the LHC experiments. Detailed results are also presented to facilitate alternative theoretical interpretations

    Inclusive nonresonant multilepton probes of new phenomena at s\sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

    No full text
    An inclusive search for nonresonant signatures of beyond the standard model (SM) phenomena in events with three or more charged leptons, including hadronically decaying τ\tau leptons, is presented. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb1^{-1} of proton-proton collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016-2018. Events are categorized based on the lepton and b-tagged jet multiplicities and various kinematic variables. Three scenarios of physics beyond the SM are probed, and signal-specific boosted decision trees are used for enhancing sensitivity. No significant deviations from the background expectations are observed. Lower limits are set at 95% confidence level on the mass of type-III seesaw heavy fermions in the range 845-1065 GeV for various decay branching fraction combinations to SM leptons. Doublet and singlet vector-like τ\tau lepton extensions of the SM are excluded for masses below 1045 GeV and in the mass range 125-150 GeV, respectively. Scalar leptoquarks decaying exclusively to a top quark and a lepton are excluded below 1.12-1.42 TeV, depending on the lepton flavor. For the type-III seesaw as well as the vector-like doublet model, these constraints are the most stringent to date. For the vector-like singlet model, these are the first constraints from the LHC experiments. Detailed results are also presented to facilitate alternative theoretical interpretations
    corecore